Fed Decision in Focus as Retail Sales Beat Expectations

All eyes are on the Fed this afternoon, with investors looking to see what comes out of Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, particularly for insights into the state of the economy, inflation, and the future direction of interest rates.

Ahead of the decision, US index futures are mixed but little changed, with NASDAQ futures up 0.5% and Dow futures down 0.1%. The US Dollar is also mixed, gaining against Precious Metals and Cryptocurrencies but slipping against the majors. US retail sales came in well above expectations at 0.9% v. Street 0.5%, a positive sign for the economy and consumer spending.

Overseas, Asia was mixed, with the Nikkei up 0.7% and the Hang Seng down 0.7%. In Europe, the DAX is down 0.1% while the FTSE is flat. In Commodities, Crude Oil is up 0.6%, trading near $76.50/bbl, while Gasoline is up 0.2%. Gold is down 0.3%, Copper is up 0.1%, and Silver is down 0.2%.

In Rates, the US 10-year Treasury note yield is steady near 4.45%, while the US 30-year Treasury note yield is steady near 4.95%. The Euro and Loonie are each up 0.1%, while Bitcoin is down 1.5%.

Looking ahead, retail sales figures for Canada and the UK are due Friday. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of England meet Thursday, with both central banks expected to keep their benchmark interest rates steady. With the US closed Friday for the Juneteenth holiday, Thursday is Triple Witching option expiry day.

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