Morning Minutes

Energy In Focus as Biden Inauguration Approaches

January 18, 2020

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

With US markets closed today for Martin Luther King Day, stock markets around the world have been holding steady overnight, as is common on US holidays. The rest of this week, however, has the potential to be quite active with a number of political and economic developments scheduled.

On Wednesday, Joe Biden is scheduled to be inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States. Over the weekend, reports have been coming out that suggest he is planning to kick off his term with a number of Presidential orders and directives related to the economy, immigration, trade and other areas for dealing with COVID and starting to unwind some Trump-era policies.

In terms of the potential impact on today’s trading in the open Canadian market, the most significant report has been that Biden intends to block the Keystone XL pipeline, picking up where he left off as VP in the Obama Administration. This could potentially impact the price differential between the US WTI and Western Canadian Select benchmark crude oil prices and through that, potentially impact sentiment toward energy stocks. So far today, WTI is down 0.4% while WCS is down 2.5%. Both of those declines pale in comparison, however, to the 5.0% plunge underway in the natural gas price as temperatures remain unseasonably warm in some consuming regions, depressing peak winter heating season demand.

In other news this week, there are a number of central bank meetings planned in Canada, Europe and Japan. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady but investors may look for hints on whether the bank has any plans to increase stimulus with lockdowns deepening and being extended across the country. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan added stimulus at their last meetings in December so they appear unlikely to do so again this time.

Earnings season continues to ramp up this week with more results from US airlines plus national and regional banks. Reports are also expected to start coming in from railroads, technology, oilfield services, industrials and other sectors. Headliners include: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Halliburton on Tuesday, P&G and UnitedHealth on Wednesday, Intel, IBM, Travelers Insurance, and Union Pacific on Thursday, wrapping up with Honeywell and Schlumberger on Friday.

The economic data calendar is light this week until Friday when Flash Manufacturing and Flash Service PMI reports come out from the US, UK, Germany and others bringing the first peek at January economic conditions, plus Canadian retail sales.

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Stocks Sink Amid New US Stimulus, Bank Earnings and Retail Sales                                                                                                                                          

January 15, 2020

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

Its the first day of earnings season, the Friday before a long weekend and monthly options expiry in the US today and amid a flurry of news announcements, US index futures are sliding 0.3%-0.4% this morning, adding to yesterday’s 0.1% to 0.4% declines. European markets are also in the red today with the Dax down 0.9% and the FTSE falling 0.8%.

Last night President-Elect Biden outlined his fiscal stimulus proposal for dealing with the impact of the current wave of COVID and lockdowns including a vaccination plan and a $1.9 Trillion fiscal stimulus program which includes a $1,400 payment to affected individuals (bringing the recent total up to the $2,000 some politicians had been looking for in the December negotiations, support for states and education, extending the ban on evictions, and an increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour. It remains to be seen how much of this will pass or be negotiated away in the coming weeks even with the Democrats controlling both the White house and Congress, particularly with an economic rebuilding plan reportedly coming next month.

US earnings season has kicked off this morning with results from 3 big banks. Citigroup beat the street on EPS ($2.08 vs street $1.34) but increased its credit loss provision to $1.5B from $0.43B last quarter. JPMorgan also beat expectations on earnings ($3.79 vs street $2.62), which were propelled by a net $1.9B or $0.72 per share release of cash from credit (loan loss) reserves, and record results from trading operations. Wells Fargo exceeded street earnings expectations ($0.64 vs street $0.58).

Action in precious metals, however, suggests that today’s action is more of a common trading correction and not a bearish change in sentiment. Gold and silver are down 0.25% and 1.80% on a day when their natural adversary, the US Dollar is also down, suggesting that capital is still shying away from defensive havens. That being said, new lockdowns overseas, particularly in China, does appear to be dragging on commodity prices this morning with both Copper and WTI Crude Oil falling about 1.0%.

Confirming anecdotal reports from struggling US retailers from the last few days, US retail sales declined 0.7% in December which was worse than the flat reading the street had expected, while November retail sales were revised downward to a 1.4% drop from a 1.1% decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index also came in below expectations (3.5 vs street 6.0 and previous 4.9). These misses, combined with the payroll declines announced last week confirm that the latest round of lockdowns has started to take its toll on the US economy.

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Steady Stocks Await Biden Speech and Earnings Season

January 14, 2021

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

US stocks remain in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s kickoff to earnings season. US index futures are flat to up 0.3%, similar to yesterday’s flat to 0.4% return. Overseas markets were also mildly positive with the Dax up 0.2%, the FTSE up 0.5% and the Hang Seng up 0.9%. Energy and metals trading is also quiet so far today with Gold down 0.7%, Copper up 0.6% and WTI crude oil down 0.6%.

Investors appear to be sitting on their hands awaiting a flurry of developments over the next 24 hours. This evening, President-Elect Joe Biden is expected to outline his plans for dealing with the current wave or COVID 19 including vaccinations, fiscal stimulus and possibly other initiatives. This afternoon, Fed Chair Powell and three other FOMC members are set to speak which investors may look to for hints of whether the central bank is planning to bring in additional stimulus to deal with the current round of lockdowns.

Ahead of tomorrow’s formal kickoff of earnings season, there are a number of corporate reports out today. Delta Air Lines reported a slightly worse than expected loss (-$2.53 vs street -$2.50) but mentioned that it cut its cash burn rate by about 50% in the latest quarter. Retailer Nordstrom announced a holiday season same store sales plunge of 22% from a year ago indicating discretionary retailers, particularly in clothing, continue to struggle, but also that consumers continue to shift spending online with a 54% increase in online sales over a year ago.

In economic news, China announced a stronger than expected trade surplus ($78.1B vs street $72.3B) boosted by higher than expected export growth (18.1% vs street 15.0%). Imports were also higher than expected (6.5% vs street 5.0%), a positive indicator of growing demand for commodities.

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Stocks Hold Steady on Mixed US Retailer News

January 13, 2020

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

Stock markets around the world have been quiet overnight as investors await a number of developments scheduled for later in the week including China trade data tonight, FOMC Chair Powell and President-Elect Biden speaking Thursday and the kickoff to earnings season plus retail sales numbers for the US and China on Friday. This afternoon, the Fed releases its Beige Book regional economic report and two FOMC members are set to speak, Brainard and Clarida, of which the former could be particularly significant considering her long-established ties to the incoming administration.

US index futures are down 0.2%-0.4% this morning, essentially giving back yesterday’s US index gains of 0.0%-0.4%. Major European indices are flat to down 0.3% today after taking a handoff from essentially flat Asia Pacific trading.

While investors await the start of earnings season, holiday season sales from retailers have attracted some attention. This morning’s numbers highlight the growing divide between discretionary versus staples/online purchases. Target announced that its same store holiday season sales were up 17.2% over year, including large increases in curbside pickup and delivery sales. On the other hand, apparel and lifestyle retailer Urban Outfitters is down 9.3% in premarket trading after announcing that its holiday season sales were down over 9% from a year ago.

WTI crude oil is up 0.4% this morning after weekly API US oil inventories fell by 5.8 mmbbls last week, more than the previous week’s 1.6 mmbbl drawdown. US DOE oil inventories are due at 10:30 am EST, with the street expecting a 2.2 mmbbl drawdown, less than the 8.0 mmbbl decline of the previous week. Natural gas, meanwhile, is up 2.0% as temperatures fall in consuming regions. Metals are mixed today with Gold up 0.5%, Copper up 0.3% but Silver sliding 0.4%.

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Mixed Markets Await New Developments

January 12, 2021

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

World markets have been mixed overnight as investors digest recent developments related to COVID Wave 2 (vaccine rollouts versus new/increased lockdowns) while awaiting the start of US earnings season later this week, and Joe Biden’s inauguration as US President next week.

It’s a light day for both economic news and corporate news. A couple of FOMC members are speaking today and weekly oil inventories are due later on but the main data reports (trade and retail sales for the US and China) aren’t due until Thursday-Friday.

This morning finds US index futures bouncing 0.2%-0.3%, clawing back some of yesterday’s 0.3%-1.3% losses. In Europe today, the Dax is down 0.1% while the FTSE is down 0.6%. It was a good day for Chinese markets with Shanghai rallying 2.0% and Hong Kong climbing 1.3% but the other major Asia Pacific indices were flat to down slightly.

In commodity action today, WTI and Brent Crude Oil are up 1.1%-1.3% ahead of weekly inventory numbers due later today and tomorrow. Copper is up 1.2% while Platinum is up 2.0%. Gold and silver are steady today.

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Stocks Slide as Investors Take Profits Amid Lockdown Uncertainty

January 11, 2021

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

Coming off of a record-setting week for US stock markets, Monday finds US index futures in retreat falling about 0.6%, with Dow Futures falling over 200 points. Over in Europe, the Dax is down 0.9% while the FTSE is down 0.8%. Commodities are also under pressure today with WTI Crude oil down 0.9%, Brent Crude down 1.4%, Copper down 2.0% and Platinum down 3.0%. Defensive metals Gold and Silver are up 0.1% and 0.8% respectively.

Part of this retreat may be due to normal backing and filling, and part may be related to investor uncertainty surrounding political turmoil in the US. Even though President Trump is on his way out the door with less than ten days remaining in his term, US politicians appear to be more interested in fighting another impeachment battle rather than focusing on dealing with Coronavirus and providing additional stimulus support to individuals and businesses. Meanwhile Twitter, is down 8.3% in premarket action after permanently suspending President Trump’s account. Like him or not, investors appear to be recognizing that he was one of their larger and more prolific accounts with a large following.

Internationally, investors appear to be more concerned about the impact of deepening lockdowns on the world economy. Last week’s early December data was mixed but falling employment in the US and Canada did suggest that new the latest wave of lockdowns may be starting to take their toll on the economy.

It’s a light week for economic news with the calendar headlined by retail sales, industrial production and trade numbers for the US and China coming out over Thursday and Friday, leaving investors the first half of the week open to digest last week’s mixed data. Earnings season kicks off on Thursday with results from asset manager Blackrock, followed by three big US banks on Friday (Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase).

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Stocks and Commodities Climb Despite December Job Losses

January 8, 2020

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

US index futures are clinging to small gains of 0.3%-0.5% this morning and still building on this week’s positive momentum which saw the S&P 500 climb 1.5% and the NASDAQ Composite rally 2.5% yesterday. Overseas markets have continued to soar with the Nikkei rallying 2.4%, the Hang Seng gaining 1.2%, the Dax rising 0.7%. The FTSE flat, held back by a strengthening British Pound.

Confirming Wednesday’s disappointing ADP private sector payrolls report, US nonfarm payrolls dropped by 140K in December which was significantly worse than the 71K increase the street had been expecting. Part of this shortfall can be explained by an upward revision of November payroll growth to 336K from 245K but it still indicates that the new round of lockdowns has started to have a negative impact on employment. Canadian employment fell by 62K in December, wiping out November’s 62K increase and coming in worse than the 27K decline the street had been expecting.

Commodity, currency and interest rate action also suggest that the soft payroll numbers haven’t put a dent in investor confidence. Defensive precious metals Goldl and Silver remain under pressure, falling 1.5% and 2.1% respectively. Meanwhile, crude oil continues to climb. WTI and Brent continue to put $50.00/bbl and $55.00/bbl respectively in their rear-view mirror with gains of about 1.5% for both contracts today. Copper is up 0.3% this morning.  The US 10-year treasury note yield continues to rise, approaching 1.10%.

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Stocks Climb With Consumer Spending and Employment In Focus

January 7, 2020

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

Building on yesterday’s new all-time high for the Dow Industrials, US index futures are on the rise this morning gaining 0.3% to 0.8%. The NASDAQ, which trailed behind its peers yesterday, is leading the way higher today. Overseas market action has been mixed with the Nikkei rallying 1.6%, the Dax climbing 0.4%, the FTSE falling 0.4% and the Hang Seng dropping 0.5%.

Investors have been responding positively to the news that the US congress has confirmed Joe Biden’s election as the next US President and also confirmation that the Democrats won both seats in the Georgia senate runoff vote giving it control of the Senate. Markets appear to be seeing this result as potentially opening the door to more fiscal stimulus. The US 10-year treasury yield is trading back above 1.00% and the US dollar is bouncing back against other major paper currencies, indicating positive sentiment toward the US at the moment.

A number of sales and earnings are out this morning which have helped to shed some light on consumer spending habits of late. Costco reported December same store sales jumped 10.7% from a year ago, boosted by increased sales of foods and alcoholic beverages. This trend was confirmed by better than expected results from packaged food producer Conagra ($0.81 vs street $0.73) and alcoholic beverage producer Constellation Brands ($3.09 vs street $2.39). Drugstore chain Walgreens Boots also beat the street on EPS ($1.22 vs street $1.03). On the other hand, Bed, Bath and Beyond is down nearly 14.0% premarket after reporting disappointing results ($0.08 vs street $0.19).

In economic news, US weekly claims numbers were better than expected both for initial (787K vs street 800K) and continuing (5.07M vs street 5.20M) claims. This may partly offset yesterday’s disappointing decline in ADP payrolls heading into tomorrow’s US and Canadian employment reports. For US Nonfarm Payrolls, the street is expecting an increase of 71K for December, down from November’s 245K increase, and an unemployment rate of 6.8%. For Canada’s employment report, also due at 8:30 am EST on Friday, investors are expecting a 27.5K decline in jobs for December, down from a 62.1K increase in November, and an unemployment rate of 8.6%.

  

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

US Stocks Turn Downward as Lockdowns hit ADP Payrolls

January 6, 2021

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

US index futures have come under pressure this morning with NASDAQ futures falling 1.4% and S&P futures falling 0.3% while Dow futures are flat on the first significant signs that the latest round of lockdowns may be starting to negatively impact the economy. US ADP private sector payrolls declined in December for the first time since April (-123K vs street 88K and previous 304K). In Europe today monthly Service PMI reports are out with results coming in slightly below 50 in contraction territory and in several cases, below street expectations.

Investors also have a number of political developments in the US to digest this morning. It appears that control of the Senate may flip to the Democrats as well as the White House as they were declared winners in one of the two Georgia senate run-offs last night and at last report, were leading slightly in the other one. Today is also the day Congress is expected to confirm the Electoral College vote and Presidential Election result amid opposition and protests from some Republicans.

Meanwhile, commodities are up again this morning. WTI Crude Oil has regained $50.00/bbl for the first time since last February after OPEC+ agreed to hold production steady and Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary 1 mmbbl/d production cut for February and March, cementing its position as the world’s swing producer. Copper is also up today, climbing 1.2%.

The US 10-year treasury note yield has moved back up above 1.00% today for the first time since March, although its unclear if this rise in traded interest rates is being driven by confidence about the US economy, questions/perceived risks about what the Democrats may do with control of the House of Representatives, Senate and Presidency, or because the US Dollar has continued its downward trend into 2021. Defensive havens such as the Japanese Yen, Gold and Silver have backed off a bit today, suggesting that investor caution has not turned into fear at this point.

  

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.

Morning Minutes

Stocks Consolidate Losses With OPEC+ Meeting and Georgia Runoff Vote In Focus

January 5, 2021

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

Yesterday’s attempt at a New Years Rally turned out to be very brief as stocks tumbled yesterday to start the new trading year, sending US indices down 1.25%-1.50%, on a combination of profit-taking and concern over the impact of lockdowns on the economy after UK PM Johnson extended the UK lockdown into February, and US construction spending for November came in below expectations (0.9% vs street 1.0% and previous 1.6%).

This morning finds US index futures and major European indices flat as investors digest Monday’s bearish turn of events. In North America, the spotlight is on today’s runoff election for two Senate seats in Georgia which will determine which party controls the upper chamber. US ISM manufacturing PMI (street 56.6 vs previous 57.5) is due out at 10:00 am EDT this morning.

WTI and Brent crude oil are both up about 1.4% today as investors await news from an OPEC+ meeting being held today to discuss production levels. Even though the group just implemented a smaller than initially expected production increase this month, a new 0.5 mmbbl/d production cut is reportedly on the table to offset the impact of new and extended lockdowns on near-term demand.

Gold and silver are up for a second straight day, this time posting gains of 0.25% and 0.80% respectively, indicating that some of the capital coming out of equity markets this week has been rotating into defensive havens including precious metals and the Japanese Yen. Sentiment remains positive toward metals in general with copper climbing another 1.1% and platinum rallying 1.75%.

 

SIA Wealth In the Media

Chief Market Strategist appeared on BNN Bloomberg recently to discuss relative strength in current markets and the outlook for early 2021. A replay link is below.

Commodities have been the stronger relative performers in the last three months: SIA’s Cieszynski

  

Disclaimer: SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.