Moon Shot Days Arrive as Markets Rally on Ceasefire Hopes

President Trump is scheduled to deliver a live address to the US this evening at 9:00 pm. It is generally expected that he may give an update on the Iran War, with investors looking for any comments related to the reported 2-3 week timeline and whether there has been progress toward a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Artemis II, the first crewed moon mission in over 53 years, is scheduled to launch this evening.


Speculation on a quicker end to the war sparked a strong relief rally yesterday in North America, which has carried through overnight into this morning. The Nikkei jumped 5.2%, while the Hang Seng climbed 2.1%. In Europe, the DAX is up 2.6% and the FTSE is up 2.0%. US index futures are higher by 0.7% to 1.1%, with the NASDAQ leading. In metals action, Gold is up 2.0%, Silver is steady, and Copper is down 0.4%.


US and Brent Crude are down 2.2% to 2.6% this morning. The gap between them, which had opened over the last month, has narrowed back toward its pre-war average of around $2.00 to $4.00/bbl. Both contracts are trading within about $2.00 on either side of the $100.00/bbl level.


US ADP payrolls for March exceeded expectations (62K vs Street 40K and previous 66K), suggesting the US job market may have held up since the war started. Nonfarm payrolls are still due Friday. Manufacturing PMI surveys have generally come in above 50, remaining in expansion territory, except for Australia and Spain which were softer. Canada Manufacturing PMI (previous 51.0) is due at 9:45 am EDT, followed by US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Street 52.5) at 10:00 am.

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