We have had a significant reversal of sentiment underway overnight and into this morning with hopes of a ceasefire or peace deal in the air. Reports of a 15-point peace proposal from the US have been circulating and President Trump has suggested that Iran has been “talking sense” in negotiations. To date, Iran has denied any talks are happening.
US index futures are up 1.1% to 1.3% on these reports. Overseas, the DAX is up 1.9%, the FTSE is up 1.6%, the Nikkei soared 2.9%, and the Hang Seng gained 1.1%.
Energy prices have been tumbling overnight. US Crude is down 5.4%, trading below $90.00/bbl, while Brent Crude is down 5.9%, trading below $100.00/bbl. Gasoline is down 6.5% trading below $3.00/gallon.
Metals are rallying this morning. Gold is up 4.0%, Silver is up 5.5%, Copper is up 1.7%. A 2.6% gain for Bitcoin suggests “Risk-On” sentiment has returned. Treasury yields are down a bit, but the US Dollar is flat to up slightly against the other majors with the Euro steady and the Loonie down 0.2%. It’s too early to tell if anything will come of this or not, there are three days left in the five day US pause of US threats against Iranian energy facilities. For now, it looks like a significant relief rally is underway but how long it lasts may depend on whether reports, statements, tweets, or feelings, can be turned into something more concrete.