Morning Minutes

WTI Falls Back Under $100.00 and Nonfarm Payrolls




US nonfarm payrolls increased by 431K last month which was less than the 490K the street had expected, but the shortfall was more than offset and explained by an upward revision to February payroll growth to 750K from 678K. Average hourly earnings (5.6% vs street 5.5% and previous 5.2%) indicated that wage inflation continues to increase.

Energy markets are continuing to slide with WTI crude oil falling 1.2% and slipping under $100.00/bbl, while Brent Crude and gasoline are also down 1.0%. Yesterday, President Biden announced plans to release 1 million barrels per day from US strategic petroleum reserves between May and October in a bid to keep a lid on prices. Reportedly, the International Energy Agency is hosting meetings with some other member countries considering their own release plans to help expand short-term supply. Metal prices are also sliding today with gold down 1.0%, silver down 1.4% and copper down 1.2%.   

Manufacturing PMI reports from around the world have been rolling out overnight. Most of the numbers from Europe were in the mid 50s indicating a moderate expansion, but slightly weaker than expected. The strongest report was from Switzerland which beat expectations, and the weakest from China where the private Caixin report confirmed the recent government report which indicated manufacturing has tipped under 50 into contraction territory. Canadian Manufacturing PMI is due at 9:30 am EDT (street 56.5). US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 10:00 am EDT with investors potentially looking to the headline number (street 59.0 vs previous 58.6), prices paid (street 80.0 vs previous 75.6), and new orders (street 59.8 vs previous 61.7) for insights. US construction spending is also due mid-morning (street 1.0% vs previous 1.3%).  

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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