Morning Minutes

Ukraine War and Bank Earnings In Focus




As fighting in the Ukraine continues, markets have remained volatile, staging large intraday and overnight swings. Yesterday was a particularly volatile day going risk-off (stocks down, gold up) then sharply reversing course late in the day (stocks up, gold down). US index futures finished in the green yesterday with gains of 3.3% for the NASDAQ, 1.5% for the S&P and 0.3% for the Dow, Index futures were down earlier this morning but have turned upward in the last couple of hours and currently are in the green with gains of 0.1%-0.3%. In Europe this morning, the FTSE is up 2.8% and the Dax is up 2.6%.

The recent flow of capital into defensive havens appears to be reversing course. Gold is down 1.5% this morning and trading back under $1,900/oz, while Bitcoin is up 2.5%. The US 10-year treasury note yield has crept back up to 2.0%, indicating a retreat for bond prices, and the US Dollar is starting to give back recent gains against the Euro, Pound and Loonie.  In commodity action today, copper is up 0.6% while WTI crude oil is up 0.3%.

Canadian bank earnings continue to come in much stronger than expected. Building on Royal Bank’s earnings beat yesterday, CIBC* has beaten expectations ($4.08 vs street $3.67) boosted by investment banking and global markets and announced a 2-for-1 stock split. National Bank* also beat the street by a wide margin ($2.65 vs street $2.15).

Today’s US economic data has been mixed. Numbers related to economic growth were positive with durable goods orders (1.6% vs street 1.2%), and personal spending (2.1% vs street 1.5%) beating expectations. Inflation pressures, however, continue to grow, as core PCE inflation, a measure the Fed likes to use increased more than feared (6.1% vs street 5.5% and previous 5.8%).

* Shares of CIBC and National Bank are held in portfolios managed by SIA Wealth Management.

SIA Wealth In The Media:

Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski appeared on BNN Bloomberg recently where he discussed recent market swings and volatility.

Sanctions weren’t as bad as markets expected: Colin Cieszynski

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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