Morning Minutes

Stocks Rally on a Goldilocks US Nonfarm Payrolls Report




US index futures have moved higher, and ae now up about 0.2% while the US 10-year treasury note yield has declined slightly in the wake of today’s US nonfarm payrolls report. Commodities are also on the rise again today with WTI crude oil and copper both up about 0.6%.    

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 559K in May, an acceleration from the 278K jobs added in June but less than the 650K analyst consensus (let alone any fantasies of higher numbers that may have emerged after yesterday’s stellar ADP payrolls report). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate beat expectations (5.8% vs street 5.9% and previous 6.1%), but this was partially offset by a pickup in wage growth (2.0% over year vs street -0.4% and previous 0.4%).

Overall, the US job numbers appear to have come in strong enough to indicate the economy continues to recover, but not strong enough to force the Fed to cut back its stimulus program.

Canadian employment numbers for May came in even worse than feared with jobs declining more than expected with most of the country still in lockdown (-68K vs street -20K and previous -207K)).

The parade of economic reports continues later this morning with US factory orders (street -0.2%) and Canadian Ivey PMI (previous 59.9) due at 10:00 am EDT.  US President Biden is scheduled to speak at 10:15 am as negotiations on his infrastructure package continue.

Although fewer in number, earnings reports continue to roll in well above street expectations. Highlights of overnight reports include Lululemon ($1.16 vs street $0.91), Broadcom ($6.62 vs street $6.43), and DocuSign ($0.44 vs street $0.28).

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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