Morning Minutes

Steady Markets Await 2:00 pm EST Fed Decision and Forecasts




Although yesterday morning’s explosive post-CPI rally fizzled out, US indices did manage to finish the day in the green with gains of 0.3%-1.0%. This morning, global markets are quiet as traders await today’s announcement from the Fed on US interest rates and forecasts from FOMC members on GDP, inflation, and the potential path of Fed Funds for the next few years.

With a 0.50% rate hike widely hinted by FOMC members and expected by investors, investors may focus more on the Fed Funds and inflation forecasts to get an idea of how high interest rates could go before peaking (aka the Terminal Rate), and how long rates may need to stay high before coming back down. Comments from Fed Chair Powell at his 2:30 pm EST press conference may also be closely scrutinized for similar hints. Tomorrow, the focus on monetary policy shifts to Europe with the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank also holding their last meetings of the year.

US index futures are currently trading down 0.1%, while in Europe, the Dax is down 0.7% and the FTSE is down 0.3%. The 10-year US Treasury Note Yield is holding steady near 3.50% and currency action around the US Dollar has been quiet. Energy commodities have been more active with Natural Gas down 4.1% and WTI Crude Oil up 0.8%. Metals trading has been muted with Gold down 0.3% and Copper up 0.2%.  

SIA Wealth In The Media:

Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski appeared on BNN Bloomberg today where he spoke about SIA Wealth Management’s tactical investing strategy, relative strength in market sectors, and current trends in monetary policy.

We boosted our equity exposure to 100% from 0%: Chief market strategist

Next year the focus will shift to core inflation, wages and services: Chief market strategist

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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