Morning Minutes

Retail Sales and Producer Prices In Focus Ahead of Wednesday Fed Decision

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Overseas markets are trading higher this morning as investors react to the recent G-7 and NATO summits and look ahead to tomorrow’s Fed decision and the Biden-Putin summit meeting. Today’s big political news is that the US and EU have declared a truce in their long running dispute over subsidies to Boeing and Airbus.

In this environment, the Dax and FTSE are both up about 0.6% while the Nikkei is up 0.9%. US index futures are flat this morning as the 10-year treasury note yield continues to sit just below 1.50%. Commodity markets are very mixed today with WTI crude oil rallying 1.4% but copper plunging 3.8%. In currency action, Bitcoin has regained $40,000 while gold is steady just below $1,900.

The last round of significant US economic reports has come in mixed. Headline producer price inflation came in higher than expected for May (6.6% vs street 6.3%) but the core (excluding food and energy) reading of 4.8% was in line with expectations. Meanwhile both US retail sales (-1.3% vs street -0.8%) and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (17.4 vs street 23.0) were both worse than expected. The market reaction to these reports has been neutral indicating that investors likely don’t think the data was either strong enough or weak enough to put pressure on the Fed to change its current monetary stimulus program.   

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

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