Morning Minutes

OPEC+ Meeting and Bank Earnings In Focus

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Stock markets around the world have continued to struggle in the wake of yesterday’s rebound rally failure which saw stocks climb in the morning but falter and fall into another lower close. While Dow futures are up 0.75% today, NASDAQ futures are flat and European markets are in the red with the Dax down 1.5% and the FTSE down 0.8%.

It’s another mixed day for Canadian Bank earnings. TD Bank beat earnings expectations ($2.09 vs street $1.96) raised its dividend by 13% and launched a 50 million share buyback. CIBC, however, became the second bank this week to disappoint on earnings ($3.37 vs street $3.54) and raised loan loss provisions by $78M. Offsetting this a bit, CIBC did raise its dividend by 8.7% and launched a 10 million share buyback, both of which appear less than what its peers have done.

Commodities are holding steady today with WTI crude oil, Natural Gas and Copper all trading flat. Investors are awaiting results from today’s OPEC+ meeting. The group has been restoring previously cut production by 400,000 bbl/d per month, but it has been under pollical pressure to accelerate this from the US, China and others. The group may also consider whether to slow or stop this program in light of the potential impact of the COVID Omicron variant on demand.

There has been good news on the job front this morning. US weekly continuing claims came in at 1.956M, dropping below 2.00 million for the first time since March of 2020 and moving to within striking distance of the 1.784M level it was at just before COVID lockdowns kicked in and unemployment exploded. Tomorrow brings the monthly US nonfarm payrolls (street 550K) and Canada employment (street 35K) reports at 8:30 am EDT along with service PMI reports from around the world

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

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