Morning Minutes

Mixed Markets Approach Month-End 




The last trading day of October finds US index futures down 0.4%-0.6%, giving back some of the 2.4%-2.8% gains that the big three US indices made on Friday but trading up off of lows set earlier this morning. European markets are mixed with the Dax and FTSE up 0.2% but the CAC down 0.2%. Asia Pacific trading was also split with the Nikkei gaining 1.8% but the Hang Seng losing 1.2%.

Economic data has been soft this morning. Chinese Manufacturing PMI (49.2 vs street 50.0) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (48.7 vs street 51.9) reports both came in worse than expected and dropped back into contraction territory. Signs of stagflation in Europe continue to emerge as well with Eurozone Q3 GDP slowing (2.1% vs previous 4.1%), and October inflation accelerating (10.7% vs street 10.2% and previous 9.9%). US Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am EDT (street 47.0 vs previous 45.7).

Soft data and new COVID restrictions in China appear to be dragging on commodities this morning with WTI Crude Oil falling 1.8% and copper dropping 1.6%. Natural Gas, on the other hand, is soaring with a 10.5% gain in early trading. The US Dollar is climbing again today, with gains of 0.4% against the Euro and the Canadian Dollar, 0.6% against the Pound and 0.1% against Gold.

It is a busy week for economic and monetary news headlined by Manufacturing PMI reports Tuesday, ADP payroll and the Fed interest rate decision Wednesday, and US nonfarm payrolls plus Canada employment on Friday. We continue to move through the heart of earnings season this week, particularly in Canada with headliners including Thomson Reuters Tuesday, Suncor Energy, Sun Life and Nutrien Wednesday, BCE, Barrick Gold and Canadian Natural Resources Thursday, wrapping up with Constellation Software, Canada Goose, and Magna International on Friday.   

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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