Morning Minutes

Jobs and OPEC+ In Focus Between Holidays

Cute child holding in hand paper airplane in the wheat golden field on a sunny summer day. Nature in the country.View from a back.
Cute child holding in hand paper airplane in the wheat golden field on a sunny summer day. Nature in the country.View from a back.



Canada returns to trading this morning just as the US prepares to head out for a long weekend amid a flurry of economic announcements.

The start of the new month yesterday brought a number of significant reports out of the US. While headline June US manufacturing PMI was not quite as good as expected (62.1 vs street 62.6), the prices paid component (92.1 vs street 87.0) indicated that increasing inflation pressures remain a concern. Construction spending for May also disappointed (-0.3% vs street +0.4%.

The main event today is the US nonfarm payrolls report which handily beat expectations (850K vs vs street 700K, previous revised up to 583K from 559K). Average hourly earnings dipped downward (0.3% as expected, previous revised down to 0.5%) indicating that wage inflation remains contained. US factory orders are due at 10:00 am EDT today (street 1.5% vs previous -0.6%).  

Canada reported a surprise trade surplus/deficit for May (-$1.39$B vs street +$0.37B), another sign of the toll taken on the economy by the spring lockdowns. Canadian manufacturing PMI for June is due at 9:30 am EDT (previous 57.0).

Commodities are mixed this morning with WTI crude oil down 0.4%, while copper is up 0.6%. The OPEC+ supply decision meeting has dragged into today with countries still haggling over how much supply to restore to the market and when. Reportedly, a 2.0 mmbbl/d increase by the end of the year was on the table, or 400,000 bbl/d each month for the last five months of 2021.  

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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