Morning Minutes

Global Economy Slows as a Big News Week Kicks Off




Flash Manufacturing and Flash Service PMI reports for July from Australia, Japan, Germany, the UK and other European countries have been rolling out overnight and the results have been underwhelming. Overall, the majority of numbers have come in below expectations, down from last month and/or under 50 in contraction territory, suggesting that the monetary tightening of the last year may be starting to really take hold. US Flash Manufacturing (street 46.4) and Flash Service (street 54.0) reports are due at 9:45 am EDT today.

This news arrives at the start of a big week for central bank meetings. After pausing its rate hike program last month, the Fed is widely expected to resume tightening this week with a 0.25% rate hike. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is expected to raise its benchmark rate 0.25% as it continues to catch up to its peers. Other upcoming economic announcements of note include US GDP on Thursday morning, and housing data throughout the week.  

The main business news events this morning have been a rebranding of Twitter to “X” and a big weekend at the box office for both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”. Earnings season in the US resumes tomorrow as GE*, GM, 3M, Microsoft* Alphabet and Visa kick off a big week for big cap reporting. Earnings season in Canada also gets underway Tuesday with results from Canadian National Railway and First Quantum.

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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