Morning Minutes

Focus Turns From Employment to Inflation and Earnings This Week




US index futures have been sliding through the morning and currently are down 0.3%-0.8% in partial holiday trading Many markets in Europe are closed today along with banks/government in North America for Easter Monday. Asia Pacific trading saw the Nikkei and the Hang Seng post gains of 0.3%-0.4%. Metals are a bit soft with Gold down 0.5% and Copper down 0.4%, while WTI Crude Oil is flat.  

Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report came in slightly below expectations (236K vs street 240K) but this was more than accounted for by an upward revision to last month’s payroll growth. Average Hourly Earnings (wage inflation) continued to come down (4.2% vs previous 4.6%).

This week, focus turns to inflation with China numbers tonight, followed by US Consumer and Producer prices Wednesday and Thursday. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday where it is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. Friday brings the US retail sales report.

US earnings season kicks off on Friday with several big banks and other financial service leaders reporting results. Investors may look for signs of what potential impact the recent regional bank crisis, rising interest rates or a slowing economy may have had on big bank results. Confession season has been quiet so far which some may see as encouraging for the upcoming earnings season, we may get a better idea as this week progresses and especially as numbers start to roll out.

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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