Morning Minutes

Employment Numbers and Energy Supply In Focus

True Tactical SIA Wealth
True Tactical SIA Wealth



US index futures are pointing toward a slightly lower open today down 0.1% to 0.3%, still reeling from yesterday’s selloff which saw the NASDAQ plunge 2.7% and close below 13,000, while the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials fell a more moderate 1.3% and 0.4% respectively. Asia Pacific stocks were also hammered overnight as the Nikkei and Hang Seng both lost about 2.1%. European declines have been smaller with the Dax down 0.3% and the FTSE down 0.7%.

The US 10-year treasury note yield is steady just below 1.50% ahead of comments from Fed Chair Powell just after 1:00 pm EST today, which investors may look to for hints of whether the central bank is planning to continue or slow its current monetary stimulus programs. Cryptocurrencies are falling again with Bitcoin down 3.0% and back under $50,000. In precious metals, gold is steady while silver is down 1.0%.

In commodity action today, WTI crude oil is up 0.3% today as investors await news on upcoming production targets from OPEC+. Yesterday’s huge 21.5 mmbbl increase in weekly US DOS oil inventories has apparently been discounted by investors as an unwinding of recent storm-related distortions. Later this morning we’ll see if natural gas numbers are similarly distorted with the weekly EIA storage report due at 10:30 am EST (street -262 BCF vs previous -338 BCF).

Employment numbers continue to dominate economic news in the second half of the week. Partly offsetting yesterday’s disappointing US ADP payrolls report, today’s weekly jobless claims numbers came in a bit better than expected for both initial (745K vs street 750K) and continuing (4.295M vs street 4.300M) claims. Tomorrow, US nonfarm payrolls are due with the street expecting an increase of 182K up from 49K last month. January US factory orders are due at 10:00 am EST today (street 2.1% vs previous 1.1%).

SIA Wealth In The Media

Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski recently appeared on BNN Bloomberg where he discussed the impact of rising treasury yields on markets and tactical rotation between equity market sectors.

Sectors that lagged in 2020 are now catching up: SIA Wealth Management’s Cieszynski

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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