Morning Minutes

ECB Dovish Hike and US Economic Data In Focus




Market action has picked up in the last few minutes since the European Central Bank released its latest interest rate decision and statement. The ECB announced a surprise 0.25% increase for its main interest rates, but in the statement it indicated that interest rates have reached levels that can contribute to reducing inflation over time and that future moves are data dependent. Investors appear to have taken this as the ECB suggesting it is done or close to done raising interest rates for the time being.

This “dovish hike” has ignited a rally in North American and European equity markets. US index futures are up 0.25% to 0.40%, while the FTSE is up 0.9% and the Dax is up 0.3%. Markets may remain active through ECB President Lagarde’s press conference.

US economic news has been mixed this morning. Headline US producer prices increased more than expected (1.6% vs street 1.2%), but Core PPI (excluding food and energy) continued to improve (2.2% in line vs previous 2.4%). US retail sales also beat expectations. (0.6% vs street 0.2%).  Tonight brings retail sales and industrial production numbers from China.

Energy markets are rallying again this morning. WTI Crude Oil is up 1.6% and trading just below $90.00/bbl, and Natural Gas is up 3.6%. In metals action, Copper is up 0.8%, while Gold is down 0.1%.   

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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