Morning Minutes

Commodities Climb with Oil Inventories, Flash PMI and Retail Sales In Focus



In the wake of yesterday’s record high close for the NASDAQ, the Hang Seng caught fire, climbing 1.8% overnight. This morning’s equity market action has been mixed with US index futures and the Nikkei all essentially flat, the FTSE gaining 0.3% and the Dax falling 0.4%.

Flash PMI reports, the first peek at world economic conditions in June have been rolling out and results have been a mixed bag so far. Several reports have disappointed, including Japan flash manufacturing PMI (51.5 vs street 52.3), France flash Service PMI (57.4 vs street 59.4). Germany’s results were better than expected particularly its flash manufacturing PMI (64.9 vs street 63.0). UK results were mixed, beating expectations for flash manufacturing PMI (59.2 vs street 58.8), but falling short on flash service PMI (61.7 vs street 62.8). US flash PMI reports are due at 9:45 am EDT today with the street expecting manufacturing to fall to 61.4 from 62.1 last month and for services to slip to 70.0 from 70,4 last month.

Commodities are climbing this morning with WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and Copper all up 1.0% so far today. API reported another big drawdown in weekly US oil inventories of 7.1 mmbbls. Weekly DOE US oil inventories are due at 10:30 am EDT today with the street expecting a drawdown of 3.6 mmbbls, down from last week’s 7.3 mmbbl drawdown.

Canadian retail sales for April indicate that the spring round of lockdowns had a significant impact on spending. Headline retail sales dropped 5.7% in April which was worse than investors had expected. Retail sales excluding autos were even worse, plunging 7.2% which was significantly worse than the 5.0% drop the street had anticipated.

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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