Morning Minutes

All Eyes on 2:00 pm EDT Fed Decision and Forecasts




With investors apparently reluctant to go out on a limb ahead of today’s Fed interest rate decision and related announcements, US index futures are trading between -0.2% and +0.2%. European markets, meanwhile, are having a positive morning with Milan up 1.1%, and Paris up 0.7%, while London and Frankfurt are both up about 0.5%.

This afternoon, the US Federal Reserve Board is widely expected to pause its rate hike program. In addition to the decision, investors may look to the accompanying statement, comments from Fed Chair Powell at his 2:30 pm EDT press conference, and the FOMC member projections for Fed Funds, GDP, and CPI for hints as to whether the US central bank is finished raising rates, leaving the door open to future rate hikes, or open to cutting rates in future.

Ahead of today’s big decision, this month’s US Producer Price Index report came in below expectations (1.1% vs street 1.5% and previous 2.3%). This indicates that inflation pressures continue to ease, giving the Fed scope to pause its tightening program for now.  

Commodities are up moderately this morning. WTI Crude Oil is up 0.6% but still trading below $70.00/bbl, Natural Gas is up 1.4%, and Copper is up 0.4%. Currency trading finds the US Dollar trading down 0.1%-0.3% relative to Gold, the Loonie, the Euro, the Yen, the Pound and the Aussie Dollar suggesting a neutral to slightly dovish tone ahead of the Fed.

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Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist

Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

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