Morning Minutes 9/30/2020

Morning Minutes

Strong ADP Payrolls Outweigh Debate Reaction

September 30, 2020

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Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

US index futures had been trading moderately lower overnight following the first presidential debate, but most of these losses have been erased since the release of a strong ADP payrolls report leaving futures flat at the moment. Overseas, the FTSE is down 0.15 and the Dax is up 0.5%. Commodities are mixed with WTI crude oil down 0.4% and trading back under $40.00/bbl while Brent Crude is down 1.5%. Paper currencies are listless today but precious metals are under pressure again with gold falling 0.7% and silver plunging 2.5%.

A number of positive economic reports have come out overnight and this morning, headlined by US ADP private sector payrolls which increased by 749K in September, more than the 650K the street had expected. Meanwhile, August payroll growth was revised upward to 481K from 428K. Overseas, China reported better than expected Manufacturing PMI (51.5 vs street 51.2) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (55.9 vs street 52.1).

US Chicago PMI is due at 9:45 am EDT with the street expecting a reading of 52.0, up from 51.2 last month. US pending home sales are due at 10:00 am (street 3.2%), followed by weekly DOE crude oil inventories at 10:30 am EDT (1.5 mmbbl increase widely expected).

It’s the last day of Q3, so another update to Q2 GDP reports for the US and UK have been widely ignored in favor of more current data. Canadian GDP grew 3.0% in July, which was in-line with expectations but a slowdown from June’s monthly growth of 6.5%.

 

SIA Wealth In The Media

Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski recently appeared on BNN, to speak about relative strength and current trends in world markets.

 

October may be choppy for markets ahead of uncertain U.S. presidential election: SIA Wealth Management

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