Morning Minutes 3/26/2020

Morning Minutes

Stocks Rebound Despite Big Jump In US Jobless Claims

March 26, 2020

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Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
ccieszynski@siawm.com
+1 (647) 282-4428

US index futures had been down overnight but have started to rebound and trim losses in the last few minutes in the wake of the US weekly jobless claims report. Unemployment insurance claims in the US spiked up to 3.2 million last week, well above the 1.5 million the street was expecting and last week’s 0.28 million claims. Continuing claims were steady near 1.8% in line with expectations. Dow futures are currently down about 150 points or 0.7% trading near 20,900 up from a low near 20,700 earlier in the morning.

While the size of the jump in claims may have been a surprise to the street, considering the unprecedented measures being taken to control COVID-19, estimates may have been closer to guesses than usual as events have moved so quickly I don’t think anyone really knew what the number would be. With this report, the impact of coronavirus shutdowns on the economy starts to shift from the fearful unknown to the known and quantifiable, confirming the pressure on politicians and central banks to get in front of the slowdown and keep providing fiscal and monetary support. The market action suggests that a really big number had already been priced into market expectations.

Earlier this morning, Fed Chair Powell gave a TV interview indicated that while economic activity is expected to decline due to coronavirus containment measures, he suggested that a temporary recession could be followed by a good rebound once coronavirus is controlled as confidence returns and stimulus measures kick in. He indicated the Fed plans to continue moving aggressively to combat the slowdown and that it is not going to run out of ammunition.

In other news, the Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% and the US Senate unanimously passed the US fiscal stimulus package, sending it on to the House of Representatives.

 

New Video: Market Commentary and Portfolio Update – March 25, 2020

With Jeremy Fehr – Founder and CEO, and Ted Bader – President of SIA Wealth Management

Click Here to watch a new webinar of Jeremy Fehr, founder of SIACharts and SIA Wealth, discussing additional changes in the Asset Class Rankings, what he is seeing in the markets currently, and the impact going forward. SIA Wealth President Ted Bader discusses investment strategies related to the portfolios that SIA Wealth Management sub-advises for BMO Global Asset Management. A PDF version of the presentation is available.

SIA Wealth plans to continue holding weekly update webinars on Wednesdays at 2:00 pm EDT for the foreseeable future.

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