Morning Minutes 1/9/2019 and Today’s Webinar Info

Morning Minutes

Trade Talks, Oil Prices and Bank of Canada In Focus

January 9, 2019
8:45 am EST

At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.

Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428

Special Event Today: BMO SIA Focused Funds Webinar With Jeremy Fehr

Date: Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Time: 2:00 pm EST, 12:00 pm MST

Click Here To Register

SIA Wealth Founder and CEO Jeremy Fehr will be providing a market update and an inside look into SIA Wealth Management’s investing process, particularly as it relates to our two new Exchange Traded Funds, the BMO SIA Focused Canadian Equity Fund (ZFC), and the BMO SIA Focused North American Equity Fund (ZFN). These are tactical equity solutions designed to gain access to the technical and relative strength analysis expertise of SIA Wealth Management in a high conviction, unconstrained portfolio.


Morning Market Commentary


Stock markets around the world have continued to climb overnight and into this morning, boosted by the news that US-China trade talks were extended to a third day, which was widely seen as a sign of progress. The Hang Seng rallied 2.2% on the news while the Nikkei, FTSE and Dax all gained about 1.0%. In the US today, Dow futures are pointing up 115 points, looking to build on yesterday’s 256 point gain.

The risk that a US-China trade war could have a negative impact on the world economy and resource demand had put pressure on commodities in the fourth quarter of 2018, particularly crude oil, but amid signs of progress and favorable comments from officials on both sides, commodities have attracted renewed interest. WTI crude oil is up 2.0% this morning and has regained the $50.00/bbl level, while Brent crude is up 1.6% approaching $60.00 and copper is up 0.75%. Last night API reported a 6.27mmbbl drawdown in US oil inventories, more than the previous week’s 4.50 mmbbl drawdown. Weekly US DOE oil inventories are due at 10:30 am EST.

The Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision is due at 10:00 am EST today. The Bank held the overnight rate steady at its last meeting in December after an October increase, and is expected to keep interest rates steady again today. In the December statement the Bank had expressed concern about the potential impact of rising global trade tensions, and falling energy prices on the economy in shifting from a hawkish to neutral tone. Since then, US oil prices plunged further and even though oil has rebounded, WTI remains below where it was on December 5th. Falling energy prices have eased inflation pressures reducing pressure on the Bank to raise rates, while at the same time the impact of previous interest rate hikes and Alberta energy production cuts that started this month remain an open question. With so many factors that could influence monetary policy currently in transition, the Bank may once again adopt a neutral to dovish tone.

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