December 11, 2018
8:45 am EDT
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Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428
For most of this month, markets have been acting like the Grinch was in charge, with a combination of tax loss selling, big events and fears that political turmoil could impact the world economy sparking big selloffs and high volatility.
Yesterday, however, was an improvement for sentiment. US indices started out lower, recovered through the day and closed higher. A 34-point gain for the Dow suggested selling pressure easing and bulls starting to wrest back control.
As we move deeper into December, the stage may be getting set for a Santa Claus Rally after all. Tax loss selling often subsides as the month progresses, and the big event risks are starting to fade. Overnight, indications emerged that China is still willing to talk trade with the US, the OPEC+ meeting is over and UK PM May has kicked the Brexit vote can down the road, into mid-January at least. This leaves next weekâ€™s Fed meeting as the last big economic event remaining this year. With the Fed widely expected to raise interest rates again, the big question there is how many times is the Fed expecting to raise rates next year.
This morning finds bulls trying to keep the party going for a second day. Dow futures are up 228 points or 0.9%, the Dax is up 1.9% and WTI Crude Oil is up 1.3%. As has been the case for the last two months, however, the close is likely to be more important than the open. Santaâ€™s on the runway and if markets can climb again, he may be ready for takeoff. If, however, stocks run into another wall of selling and finish lower, it would suggest the Grinch is still circling overhead.
Upcoming Events: Thursday Webinar
SIA Charts will be hosting its monthly webinar on Thursday December 13th at 1:00 pm EDT which will include comments on the market from Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski and information on the new SIA Models section of the SIA Charts website.
Click on the link below to register for the event and receive the call-in details.
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