December 7, 2018
8:45 am EST
At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.
Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428
World markets have been mixed overnight as investors have been digesting this weekâ€™s volatility and awaiting todayâ€™s two significant announcements.
Crude oil was steady overnight but has spiked upward on the last half hour. WTI and Brent are now up 2.0%-2.6% suggesting that investors are anticipating positive news from todayâ€™s OPEC+ meeting. Yesterdayâ€™s OPEC only meeting ended in indecision so investors have been hoping a deal can get done today. Earlier in the week, the over/under expectation was for a 1.3 mmbbl/d cut. A deeper cut would be bullish for oil, a smaller cut or not cut could send WTI back toward or under $50.00.
Yesterday saw US markets shake off early losses to end mixed indicating that the bearsâ€™ icy grip on the markets may be starting to weaken. The Dow finished down about 80 points or 0.3% Thursday but the NASDAQ managed to post a 0.4% gain. Treasury yields continue to slide which may help to support bond prices but volatility remains elevated with the VIX still above 20. `
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155K jobs last month which is what I was expecting but less than the 200K the street was expecting. Last monthâ€™s 250K increase was revised down to 237K. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% as expected to wage inflation was steady. Canada employment increased by an incredible 94K way above the street estimate of 11K, driven by an 89K increase in full-time jobs. Wow. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% better then the 5.8% street estimate.
In reaction to this news, US index futures have been rising with Dow futures now down only 45K. The US Dollar is selling off on the job numbers while the Canadian Dollar is soaring on the back of the shockingly strong Canadian job numbers and the big rally in oil prices. The S&P/TSX fell 1.6% today but could bounce back today as sentiment toward Canada improves.
Disclaimer:Â SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable.Â SIAWM nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.