September 18, 2018
10:00 am EDT
At SIA Wealth Management everything we do is based on Relative Strength Analysis. We evaluate the Relative Strength between asset classes giving us insight into money flows on a large scale, and from this select top ranked investments.
Market Commentary By:
Colin Cieszynski, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
+1 (647) 282-4428
Todayâ€™s trading in major commodities looks like a case of â€śsell on rumor, buy on newsâ€ť. For several weeks now, commodities and China-sensitive markets have been trending lower on speculation the US-China trade war could seriously escalate, potentially destabilizing global trade and the world economy. Often with events that revolve around negotiations, like trade deals or labor disputes, markets often price in speculation, then reverse when the events happen as traders take profits against news.
Overnight the US and China announced a new round of tariffs against each other, but the measures were not as aggressive as they could have been. The US is going ahead with new tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports but the rate is 10% not the 25% or more it could have been. President Trump decided at the last minute to exclude tariffs on Apple products removing what could have become a high-profile negative impact on US consumers. China, meanwhile, introduced tariffs on only $60B of US imports opting not to bring in additional measures.
These moves could be seen as leaving the door open for more talks and potentially finding a way for them to get out of this mess while saving face, perhaps after the midterm elections, sparking some relief among investors and a relief rally in markets that had been depressed by trade war fears. Copper is up 2.8% today while WTI crude oil is up 2.0%, regaining the $70.00/bbl level. The Dow and the S&P/TSX Composite are up 0.3% to start the day with energy producers and miners potentially attracting renewed interest as commodity prices rise. The VIX is down 5.4% indicating that fear is
fading for now.
The Canadian Dollar is up 0.35% boosted by a positive Canadian manufacturing shipments report. Shipments grew 0.9% in July, more than the 0.6% street estimate and the previous month was revised upward as well. Oil sensitive markets could be active through the day with weekly API inventories due later in the day. Strong demand, the impact of sanctions on Iranian exports and slowing US production could all influence stockpiles.
SIA Wealth Management has launched our new website! Check it out at
Webinar Replay Information:
SIA Charts recdently hosted its monthly webinar which included comments on the market from Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski. Ted Bader, President of SIA Wealth also gave a presentation about the 2 Funds SIA Wealth runs, specifically focusing on the strong performance of the US tactical pool as well as recent changes that have been made to the Tactical Market Neutral Pool. A link to the replay is below. Colin and Ted each spoke for about 20 minutes, with some questions afterward.
Disclaimer:Â SIA Wealth Management Inc. (SIAWM) specifically represents that it does not give investment advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment whatsoever. This information has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. None of the information contained in this document constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment or an offer to provide investment services of any kind. As such, advisors and their clients should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this report without obtaining specific advice in relation to their accounts and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. SIACharts Inc. nor its third party content providers make any representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein and shall not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice.